Publications

2022

1. 

   Close Encounters During a Pandemic: Social Habits and Inter-generational Links in the First Two Waves of COVID-19

   Annalisa Cristini, and Pedro Trivin

   Economics & Human Biology, 2022

   Abs Bib Website

   Social habits are ingrained in a community and affect human behaviour. Have they played any role in the spread of the pandemic? We use high-frequency data for 220 regions in 15 European countries from March to December 2020 to compare the association between social contacts outside the family and within inter-generational families, on the one hand, and cases and excess mortality on the other. We find that a standard deviation increase in the percentage of people having daily face-to-face contacts outside the household is associated with 5 new daily cases and 2.6 additional weekly deaths, while the incidence of inter-generational households exhibits a less robust association with both COVID-19 transmission and mortality. We compare results across the first and the second wave of pandemic and show that differences are related to the average age of the most affected groups. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of a number of controls, fixed effects, the chosen sample of countries, and the estimation method. We argue that type and frequency of social interactions are interweaved with a region culture and habits and are informative on the potential transmission of contagion and on its lethality.

   @article{EHB2022,
     title = {{Close Encounters During a Pandemic: Social Habits and Inter-generational Links in the First Two Waves of COVID-19}},
     journal = {Economics & Human Biology},
     volume = {47},
     pages = {101180},
     year = {2022},
     issn = {1570-677X},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101180},
     url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X22000764},
     author = {Cristini, Annalisa and Trivin, Pedro},
     keywords = {COVID-19, Social contacts, Inter-generational households, Virus contagion, Excess mortality},
     papercat = {1},
   }

2. 

   The Wealth-Consumption Channel: Evidence from a Panel of Spanish Households

   Pedro Trivin

   Review of Economics of the Household, Dec 2022

   Abs Bib Website

   In this paper, we use a panel of Spanish households spanning the period 2002–2011 to study the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of wealth. The wealth effect is identified by exploiting within-household variations in a period of relatively large volatility in asset prices. We estimate a MPC out of total wealth of around 1 cent with changes in housing wealth affecting consumption more than other assets. We also find supporting evidence on the concavity of the consumption function, showing that the MPC decreases with net wealth. Our results uncover the existence of sign and magnitude asymmetries in the MPC. This asymmetric behavior is not present in households with higher income expectations, suggesting that the transmission channel is related to precautionary saving motives.

   @article{REHO2022,
     author = {Trivin, Pedro},
     title = {{The Wealth-Consumption Channel: Evidence from a Panel of Spanish Households}},
     journal = {Review of Economics of the Household},
     year = {2022},
     volume = {20},
     number = {4},
     pages = {1377-1428},
     month = dec,
     keywords = {Marginal propensity to consume out of wealth; Wealth distribution; Household survey; Panel data; Inc},
     doi = {10.1007/s11150-021-09586-},
     url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/reveho/v20y2022i4d10.1007_s11150-021-09586-3.html},
     papercat = {1},
   }

2021

1. 

   Reported MPC in the Presence of Debt

   Hector Sala, and Pedro Trivin

   Economics Letters, Dec 2021

   Abs Bib Website

   We use information from the last wave of the Spanish Survey of Household Finances to study the influence of debt on self-reported marginal propensity to consume (MPC). We find an average MPC of 43% with indebted households having a smaller MPC than non-indebted households. This negative association increases along with the amount of debt. The MPC is lower for households that were subject to liquidity constraints in the previous year, and for those whose reference person is self-employed. The past relationship between income and consumption is also an important determinant of the MPC, as households that invest last year’s savings, or hold them for the future, have a lower MPC. These findings are in line with the predictions of precautionary saving models.

   @article{Ecolet2021,
     title = {{Reported MPC in the Presence of Debt}},
     journal = {Economics Letters},
     volume = {205},
     pages = {109929},
     year = {2021},
     issn = {0165-1765},
     doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109929},
     url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176521002068},
     author = {Sala, Hector and Trivin, Pedro},
     keywords = {Marginal propensity to consume, Debt, Survey},
     papercat = {1},
   }

2020

1. 

   Economic Development, Inequality and Generalized Trust

   Andreas Kyriacou, and Pedro Trivin

   Economics Bulletin, 2020

   Abs Bib Website

   Individuals turn towards identifiable in-groups to reduce uncertainty in social interaction. By reducing existential uncertainty, economic development undermines the rationality of in-group bias and, as such, facilitates the emergence of generalized trust. Conversely, income inequality may undermine generalized trust because it makes social interaction less predictable. In view of this, we argue that the positive impact of economic development on generalized trust is likely to be undermined by income inequality. Our empirical evidence, based on a panel of up to 89 countries, and controlling for the influence of potentially confounding covariates and the real possibility that generalized trust can impact on both development and inequality, provides robust support for this assertion. Thus, if generalized trust is to be sustained, attention should be given to both the growth and distribution of income.

   @article{EB2020,
     author = {Kyriacou, Andreas and Trivin, Pedro},
     title = {{Economic Development, Inequality and Generalized Trust}},
     journal = {Economics Bulletin},
     year = {2020},
     volume = {40},
     number = {1},
     pages = {286-291},
     month = {},
     keywords = {Economic development; income inequality; generalized trust; panel data.},
     doi = {},
     url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-19-00574.html},
     papercat = {1},
   }

2018

1. 

   The Effects of Globalization and Technology on the Elasticity of Substitution

   Hector Sala, and Pedro Trivin

   Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Aug 2018

   Abs Bib Website

   The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor ( $σσ ) is usually considered a “deep parameter”. This paper shows, in contrast, that σσ is affected by both globalization and technology, and that different intensities in these drivers have different consequences for the OECD and the non-OECD economies. In the OECD, we find that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is below unity; that it increases along with the degree of globalization; but it decreases with the level of technology. Although results for the non-OECD area are more heterogeneous, we find that technology enhances the substitutability between capital and labor. We also find evidence of a non-significant impact of the capital-output ratio on the labor share irrespective of the degree of globalization (which would be consistent with an average aggregate Cobb–Douglas technology). Given the relevance of σ$ σ for economic growth and the functional distribution of income, the intertwined linkage among globalization, technology and the elasticity of substitution should be taken into account in any policy makers’ objective function.

   @article{ROWE2018,
     author = {Sala, Hector and Trivin, Pedro},
     title = {{The Effects of Globalization and Technology on the Elasticity of Substitution}},
     journal = {Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv)},
     year = {2018},
     volume = {154},
     number = {3},
     pages = {617-647},
     month = aug,
     keywords = {Labor share; Capital-output ratio; Elasticity of substitution; Globalization; Technology},
     doi = {10.1007/s10290-018-0315-7},
     url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/weltar/v154y2018i3d10.1007_s10290-018-0315-7.html},
     papercat = {1},
   }

2014

1. 

   Openness, Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

   Hector Sala, and Pedro Trivin

   Journal of African Economies, Jan 2014

   Abs Bib Website

   This paper revisits the determinants of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa by looking at conditional and unconditional convergence, and by focusing on the growth incidence of globalisation, domestic investment (DI), and foreign direct investment (FDI). We use annual time-series to estimate dynamic panel data models that exploit all sample information (i.e., we do not only use 5-year averages as is standard in the literature). We find the rate of conditional convergence to be around 4\%, and the growth impact of FDI and DI to be greater the greater is the change in the degree of economic openness. We also find a net crowding out effect between both types of capital so that larger amounts of FDI reduce the impact of DI on economic growth (and vice versa). These results are obtained through the estimation of multiplicative interaction models which allows us to evaluate the interactions between changes in openness, DI and the net flows of FDI. This constitutes a novelty in the appraisal of the globalisation and investment impact on economic growth.

   @article{JAE2014,
     author = {Sala, Hector and Trivin, Pedro},
     title = {{Openness, Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa}},
     journal = {Journal of African Economies},
     volume = {23},
     number = {2},
     pages = {257-289},
     year = {2014},
     month = jan,
     issn = {0963-8024},
     doi = {10.1093/jae/ejt027},
     url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejt027},
     eprint = {https://academic.oup.com/jae/article-pdf/23/2/257/1966218/ejt027.pdf},
     papercat = {1},
   }

2. 

   Labour Market Dynamics in Spanish Regions: Evaluating Asymmetries in Troublesome Times

   Hector Sala, and Pedro Trivin

   SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Aug 2014

   Abs Bib Website

   The Spanish labour market disproportionately booms in expansions and bursts in recessions; meanwhile, its regions’ relative position persists: those with the highest unemployment rates in 1996 were also in the worse position in 2012. To examine this twofold feature, we apply Blanchard and Katz’s (Brookings Pap Econ Act 1:1–75, 1992 ) methodology and evaluate how the Spanish labour market reacts to regional employment shocks in a variety of cases. Shock responses are channelled via changes in unemployment, labour market participation, and spatial mobility. Our results provide evidence of asymmetric responses across business cycle phases (1996–2007 and 2008–2012). While changes in participation rates are the main adjustment mechanism in expansion, unemployment and spatial mobility become the central ones in recession. We also provide evidence of real wage rigidities in both periods, due to rigidities in both nominal wages and consumer prices. We conclude with a cluster analysis showing that high and low unemployment regions have similar responses in the short-run while, in the long-run, the former are more reactive in terms of spatial mobility. Overall, we provide evidence that people in a region are more willing to migrate (relative to the national average) when a regional shock occurs in relatively worse economic contexts.

   @article{Series2014,
     author = {Sala, Hector and Trivin, Pedro},
     title = {{Labour Market Dynamics in Spanish Regions: Evaluating Asymmetries in Troublesome Times}},
     journal = {SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association},
     year = {2014},
     volume = {5},
     number = {2},
     pages = {197-221},
     month = aug,
     keywords = {Employment; Unemployment; Regional labour markets; Spain; J20; E24; J61; R11},
     doi = {10.1007/s13209-014-0106-x},
     url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/series/v5y2014i2p197-221.html},
     papercat = {1},
   }

3. 

   Does Capitalism Enhance the Labor Share? A Critique of Young and Lawson (2014)

   Hector Sala, and Pedro Trivin

   Politica economica, Journal of Economic Policy, Aug 2014

   Abs Bib Website

   We reassess the evidence provided by Young and Lawson (2014) according to which the smaller is the degree of economic freedom, the lower is the labor share. Using dynamic panel data methods and yearly data, we show that the results from Young and Lawson (2014) are not robust, and question their claim that limiting a country’s scope of government is associated with a larger labor share. We argue that a generic questioning of government intervention is too rough to be informative and, rather than advocating for the minimization of government intervention, efforts should be devoted to identify the best possible institutional setting given the specificities of each country. This inquiry is beyond the scope of the analytical framework which, nevertheless, allows us to confirm the significant, robust, and heterogeneous impact of the capital-output ratio on the labor share. In this context, a salient finding is the increase in the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in recent years in the non-OECD area.

   @article{PolEco2014,
     year = {2014},
     issn = {1120-9496},
     journal = {Politica economica, Journal of Economic Policy},
     number = {2-3/2014},
     doi = {10.1429/80195},
     title = {{Does Capitalism Enhance the Labor Share? A Critique of Young and Lawson (2014)}},
     url = {https://www.rivisteweb.it/doi/10.1429/80195},
     publisher = {Società editrice il Mulino},
     keywords = {functional income distribution, labor share, institutions (Degree of Economic Freedom Index), capital-output ratio.},
     author = {Sala, Hector and Trivin, Pedro},
     pages = {261--298},
     language = {it},
     papercat = {1},
   }